How fast will your business IT operations change in the next 2 years?
About 30 years ago I was told about the “Innovation Life Cycle”. It was at Uni in a Marketing lecture, and the lecturer zoomed past it like a dragonfly passing a hungry frog. Today as I look at the predictions made by Gartner for the changes coming in the next 24 months about our business IT – I think it might be time to adjust the shape of the curve.
You will have noticed or read about or simply experienced the rate of change of our technology – particularly in business communications lately. “Smart” phones, GPS devices, Local Marketing Devices, Netbooks, iPads, those Google barcode thingies, and lots of other stuff that “older” people have mostly ignored.
Business owners are now at a crossroad where they must either:
- Join in, and become part of the early adoption – to avoid being left in the dust in the “new world”
- Continue to do as they have done, relying on traditional ways and tools for getting things done, in the belief that the changes in technology will not affect them greatly.
The decision to be made is really whether the changes are of a “structural” nature – or not. A structural change was the internal combustion engine leading to cars/trucks/other which was a structural change for transportation. Do you see many businesses using horses and carts?
Another examples was the fax machine. When it arrived it was amazing technology – and it altered the way we delivered printed word. Followed by email. Email now means that the sales of fax machines will be looking a bit dismal on a sales chart – and in a short time they will be like record players or video recorders [can you still buy them?]
Let’s have a look at some of the predictions from Gartner about IT. Be sure to real all the way to the end – or skip to the last one – I think it is vital for most business owners right now.
– by 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets. Huh? Yep – one in five businesses will be operating “virtually”. Hardware will be owned by 3rd parties.
– by 2012, India based IT service companies will have over 20% of cloud services. If you don’t know what that is – Google it – which of course reflects the absence in the world now of dictionaries and encyclopedias.
– by 2012 – Facebook is the hub for social network integration and web socialization. Ummm. Gartner is saying that pretty much all social media will need to be FB ‘interoperable’ or will disappear. If you are now ‘using’ Facebook consider where you are in the Innovation Cycle. Yesterday I needed a haircut. I have a new provider – and had not yet put their details into my smart phone [actually – it is now pretty dumb and I need to upgrade]. I was near my PC, so I googled the hairdresser. Because her website is not terribly well optimized, her Facebook Page appeared above it in the results, so I went there. But there was no phone number on her FB page… Darn it. If I had been using my phone to google the number – it would have been extra annoying – because right now phone service providers are giving free access to Social Media sites like Facebook. Now – this means that visiting FB does not use up my allowed bandwidth – which is an advantage when you only get a set amount each month. If you do not understand what I just wrote – anytime in the next week or so would a good time to pull your head out of the 20 year old sand it is stuck in. Or just plan not to be in business for very long.
– By 2014 – most IT business cases will include a cost for carbon. It seems that virtual servers produce less carbon than having your own on your premises. One answer this is to just make more money so you don’t notice this extra little tax. Or raise your prices to cover it. Remember though, that someone with a virtual IT system already has a lower IT cost, and is also not paying for the extra carbon. So unless you are differentiated and not competing only on price – then you will become increasingly “screwed”.
By 2015 – Gartner’s team suggests that internet marketing will be “regulated” because of the increasing spam and clutter in the marketing channels, and that businesses that rely only on the internet for marketing will be hurt. While I agree that having more than one marketing channel is prudent at any time – I think the regulation suggestion is bollocks. I believe it will the changing technologies matching the innovation curve that will “regulate” internet marketing – as it has done for the last 10 years.
– By 2014 – over 3 billion people worldwide will be able to buy using mobile or internet technology. Gartner predicts 6.5 billion mobile connections by 2014.
– By 2013 – mobile phones will outnumber PCs as the most used web access device worldwide. Holy moly. Seriously? Yep. They predict that the number of PCs in use in the world in 2013 will be about 1.8 billion. The combined use of smartphones and brower-equipped phones will be 1.82 billion – and continue to expand.
Is your website optimised for phone browsing? This one is – but in light of the weight of numbers here – I will list checking it is ideal for mobile this week. [Click the link at the bottom of this page or Click Here to see what a mobile optimised site looks like.] I have a free WordPress plugin on this site – which does the switching – another example of a structural change in motion – previously I would have needed web designer to build one for me.
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Have a safe and regenerative Easter,
James Hooper