Just .03% of Earth-hitting Sunlight Captured Would Exceed Our Total Projected Energy Needs for Decades into the Future…
Freedom or Doom?
23 percent of incoming solar energy is absorbed in atmosphere by water vapor, dust, and ozone. 48 percent passes through the atmosphere and is absorbed by the surface.
We have a history of technological acceleration which is exponential in effect. Two key technologies currently limit our harvesting of this radiation:
- First is that which captures the energy (currently solar panels).
- Second is that which stores energy (currently batteries).
The rate of development (and effectiveness/efficiency) of both of these tools is accelerating.
“When either of these reach a particular point – let’s call it the Solar Power Momentum Event Horizon (like the point of no return when you enter a black hole) – our entire energy paradigm will flip.”
Energy cost will move on the reverse exponential curve downward – towards but never reaching zero cost. The effect will be unlimited energy at negligible cost. Economic forces will attempt to keep energy cost high, but will ultimately fail to do so.
This change will alter human existence in the sense that there will no longer be the perceived constraint on development.
With “limitless” energy it is reasonable to have unlimited access to:
- Fresh water (salt water can be desalinated and pumped ANY distance as negligible cost for desal and pumping)
- Unlimited transport (amount of power needed to move people or items is negligible cost)
- Reduced pollution (with sufficient near-zero cost energy almost everything can be recycled)
- Increasingly improving infrastructure (actual cost of components eg steel, alloys, transportation drops as energy cost drops)
- End of any perceived food shortage (with above changes – food will be in abundance. Negligible cost for production, refrigeration, transport.)
What About “Wealth”? Happiness?
Wealth. This is where it get tricky. The constraints to everyone having all that is needed for food, shelter and other lower level Maslovian Hierarchy Needs are removed. (Physiological and Security needs).
So – no one will then have to “work” for a basic living. Food and shelter needs filled. (Tick)
Right now, a very large percentage of the activity (work) of the world’s populations is aimed at meeting their basic needs.
What happens when the need for this work is no longer needed – when food and shelter are at excess, and improving constantly due to the need to find something to do with all this spare (solar-derived) energy?
The nature of man is that we are aspirational. In the absence of pressure to survive in the most basic way – we move up the hierarchy (image below).
The middle levels are called the “psychological needs”. Esteem and love/belonging are the nice fluffy terms. Now include need for feelings of power, prestige and recognition. Humans have an “ego” problem.
Being the “same status”, and “equal” to other humans has not ever really worked effectively so far in human history. We have tended to have wars, to act in greed without logic, and to create “identifications” where we align against other human groups.
In an era where the need for lower level chores is reduced, what are we all going to “do”. Remember that unlimited almost free energy means that no mineral is ever in shortage again. Cost of mining is minimal, recycling (with unrestricted energy) is the only sensible choice. Robots become free to do all menial tasks – because they have no cost.
Humans are intrinsically “problem solving” creatures. It is the solving of problems that give us our sense of worth, our feelings of fulfilment/sense of happiness. We want to have momentum towards solving things – it makes us happy.
Our choice might be “work” on our relationships? (Oh dear Lord help me escape!) Or we might determine to find our “self actualization” in art or engineering or something. Something to give us “meaning”.
But more likely we will enter an age where the most common activity is “escape”. Entertainment will rise as a primary need (consider the Roman games). Education, maybe. Religion and spiritual pursuit – definitely.
End of Part ONE.